TIRING OF FEAR, MAKE YOUR OWN WEATHER, BUBBLING ORANGE PUDDLE

Democratic think tanks make the case that the party needs to move to the right in order to win back voters in ’26 and ’28, trying to prove that voters are more moderate on many social and cultural issues, but a counterargument in The New Republic by Monica Potts provides a road map for candidates that won’t require candidates to throw vulnerable coalition members under the bus. A compilation and analysis of the surveys and focus groups done since the 2024 election by Way to Win, a left-leaning ‘strategic donor collaborative and strategy hub,’ founded after the 2016 election, looks at swing voters including 2020 Biden voters in addition to those who sat out the election. This analysis provides a fuller picture than the conclusion that the electorate swung right in November, concluding that those who sat out the election are much more politically aligned with Democrats but weren’t motivated to vote for Kamala Harris and downballot Democrats, while determining what they want from future candidates.

Way to Win pinpoints several problems: Voters were upset about rising prices and longer-term economic trends — movements on the left around issues like Gaza, racial and economic justice and immigration weren’t aligned with the party. Potts says, “Fundamental to the report is an important corrective. While many Democrats lost last year because the party had moved too far left, Way to Win makes the case that voters don’t actually apply neatly defined ideological frames when they evaluate candidates’ policies and choose whom to vote for. Their decisions are more complex and filtered through their social, family, and work lives — a conclusion supported by much political science research. ‘When you go knock on doors, you hear all kinds of stories, but they almost never have to do with detailed policies or ideological framing,’ the report says.”

A path forward suggests moderation on some issues like immigration, the environment, or trans rights, and while it might be true that the party’s positions are to the left of the majority on some specific issues, there’s no evidence that those issues drove decision-making in November. Jennifer Fernandez Ancona of Way to Win found that other issues highlighted in their report are much bigger factors, especially true of those who failed to vote — they didn’t want moderation, but a stronger economic message and Democrats who would fight for them, who had failed to deliver in the past. By moderating, it was more likely to reinforce Republican talking points, weakening the Democrats’ position. Fernandez Ancona says, “We’re really saying we need to actually go towards strength, which is what we define in the report as basically standing for what you believe in.” The perception of Democrats as weak was partly shaped by Republican attacks rather than Democratic messages themselves, and Harris didn’t work to counter that impression, her campaign messaging failing to break through.

The issue of economic equality is a major factor to Democrat voters who want a strengthened enforcement against wealthy tax cheats, and making the wealthy pay what they owe. Fernandez Ancona says, “It’s making the case that the system is not working for a lot of people because of this inequality and this imbalance, and we have to make that more fair.” Political strategist Anat Shenker-Osorio believes Democrats need to embrace ‘magnetism,’ which is similar to the ‘strength’ that Way to Win advocates in staking out forceful positions that risk pushing some voters away but are also much more likely to attract voters than simply taking whatever positions the polls suggest. These arguments are strengthened by wins of Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill, and Abigail Spanberger in recent elections, despite the fact that they had ideological differences, but share an approach to politics that was combative on behalf of their constituents, by promising to tackle the big issues like affordability, and working hard to deliver without ceding ideological ground to Republicans. As Fernandez Ancona offers, “They actually went after it head-on by standing up for their values and who they were. The playbook going forward is, name it, call it out for what it is — because the voters don’t like this fear and division. They’re tired of it.”

The havoc and wreckage of the second Trump administration is motivating voters to show up for Democrats, evidenced in the recent elections, but to win big and retain power, the party must work harder to build a party brand that answers voters’ real concerns, differentiating them from the GOP. Potts concludes, “That doesn’t mean behaving like a weather vane, turning in whichever direction the political winds blow. It means having the courage and strength to make your own weather.”

David Rothkopf on The Daily Beast says, “It is hard to know whether Donald Trump or the MAGA movement he created is falling apart faster.” The 79-year old president is deteriorating rapidly — puffy cankles, bruises with bandages and makeup, slurring of speech, erratic behavior and conspicuous naps during televised events — not to mention his painful sensitivity to his health issues, suggesting that those who mention it are guilty of treason. As Rothkopf says, “Of course, every effort he makes to prove he’s not one step away from melting into a bubbling orange puddle seems to make it clear he’s losing it.” He points out that prominent Republicans are defecting at a rapid clip, former loyalists are willing to stand up to The Donald, with several speaking out against Trump’s opposition to extending health subsidies, and the courts have shot down many of his cases — most noteworthy being the James Comey and Letitia James retribution fabrications.

Trump is losing at the ballot box, suggesting that he is now electoral poison. The economy is floundering. Deficits are exploding. Tariffs are unpopular. His inhumane and draconian immigration crackdowns are alienating many, and his foreign policy has alienated allies and empowered adversaries. His overt corruption, his grifting, and catering to billionaires at the expense of our citizens is driving a tangible backlash — not to mention opinion regarding his mega-ballroom and turning the Oval Office into a gilded ‘Nawlins-looking bawdy-house. As Rothkopf says, a common view held by over 40% of Americans, is that humans and dinosaurs coexisted, making it likely that Fred and Wilma Flintstone live alongside their pet snorkasaurus — a larger percentage than those who believe Trump’s lies that he has made America the hottest economy in the world. Even so, it’s worth mentioning that when he wishes to placate his base he moves to attack science-based policies such as vaccines or climate change.

Rothkopf ends his piece with: “What those of us who do believe in empirical facts can see that the president and his movement are in deep trouble. They are entering uncharted territory in which even some of the most gullible among us are no longer buying what our president is selling. That is not to say Trump and MAGA have no future. Their presence will likely be felt by most of us for years to come, like a shiver down our collective spine. And that’s not just because something like 60% of Americans believe in ghosts.”

Andrew Egger points out in The Bulwark that the House passed a bill overturning a Trump executive order stripping union protection from some federal workers, a bill that began as a petition circulated by Democratic Representative Jared Golden of Maine. This was a slap in the face for House Speaker Johnson who has been able, up to now, to keep things clicking away for Trump. Only now is he being seen in the spot where many expected him to be from day one — a weak speaker who leads a fractious party who basically ignores him to do what they wish. Egger brings up the pessimistic assessments of party members who see a “looming disaster” headed their way, “facing certain defeat,” and “going down hard.” He says those statements would be expected from disgruntled GOP operatives outside of MAGA, but coming from Joe Gruters, a die-hard Trumper and chair of the RNC, expounding on conservative radio is pretty crazy.

Gruters isn’t throwing Trump under the bus with his statements; rather, he is making a specific case to the party, that, “The only person that could bring the nose up and help us win is the president of the United States, Donald J. Trump.” Predicting doom risks further depressing GOP voters and encourages office holders to retire early, and it is far from clear who the party needs to step up to get elected, repairing their predicament. In speaking to swing-state GOP operatives, they told Egger bluntly that it isn’t the historical mid-term dilemma facing them, it is the world that Trump has built for them in competing for public office. One operative said, “His message sucks. It’s absolute trash. Nobody believes the economy and particularly affordability is getting better.”

Another strategist feels Republicans will be in particularly bad shape in ’26 because Trump demands that they stay loyal to him. Past presidents have accepted some disrespect, or strategic distancing, simply to have congressional majorities without enforcing personal purity tests — hardly what Donald Trump wants. This panic has led Republicans to take steps to get the president to at least change his messaging, and treat affordability as a major concern. As he headed to Pennsylvania last week for a speech purporting to focus on that topic, he revealed that he had been advised not to call it a hoax — contrary to his earlier statements. “I can’t call it a hoax, because they’ll misconstrue that,” he said. Trump still maintains that he inherited the “worst inflation in history,” but ‘tariff’ is still his favorite word, with that commitment creating the headaches we now suffer.

The GOP can only grit their teeth, cross their fingers and hope against hope that the economy will improve down the line. One of the GOP operatives interviews stated, “This isn’t going to get any better unless he either, one, shuts off the tariffs and starts a real economic turnaround, or two — well, I don’t know what two is — the GOP is looking at a very rough midterm.” So the party isn’t looking for a number three, obviously! After The Bulwark published their story, RNC spokesperson Kiersten Pels commented that The Bulwark is a bunch of shameless hacks, and that, “Republicans will defy history because of President Trump and the successful policies of the America First movement.” And number three is…?

Amie Parnes writes in The Hill that public interest lies in a third party for both Republicans and Democrats as well as those who didn’t vote in the ’24 presidential election, according to a survey released by Voto Latino. The number three we are looking for? Last month’s survey revealed that 9% of US respondents were open to a third party candidate for the next presidential election. Of those who did vote last year, 7% voiced support for a third-party candidate, with voters across party lines being concerned that both parties are doing a poor job — 45% pointing fingers at the Dems, and 50% frowning at the GOP. A majority also said both parties have become too extreme, the Democrats too liberal or progressive, with Republicans being too conservative or right wing. “Neither party is cutting it,” says Maria Teresa Kumar, CEO of Voto Latino. She felt that Biden’s economic agenda was headed in the right direction but didn’t translate fast enough to benefit local economies.

Kumar accuses the Democrats of trying to sell a poverty agenda — not what Americans want to hear, and Trump’s success at selling “a false good” only resulted in inflation, inviting criticism of his unaffordable tariff hikes. The poll also revealed that Black and Latino respondents had skipped meals to conserve money reserves. Both groups also indicated that side jobs, or side hustles, were important in making ends meet. “It’s a tremendous opportunity to come up with a thriving economic agenda. Now is the time to think really big and offer voters something,” said Kumar. She pointed to the winning campaigns of Spanberger, Sherrill and Mamdami, who did “a good job” of speaking about economic issues and seeing voters where they are. “There’s no other place but to go up. People stay home because there’s nothing to go vote for,” Kumar concludes.

As America looks forward to abandonment of our healthcare by the Trump administration, and his lackey Robert Kennedy, Jr.’s Make America Unhealthy Again thrust, satirist Andy Borowitz has come up with a perfect solution: “After decades of anticipation, on Monday congressional Republicans finally unveiled their healthcare plan, urging all Americans who seek coverage to move to Canada. ‘Under this plan, the American people will gain full access to the doctors, hospitals, and medications they deserve,’ House Speaker Mike Johnson declared. ‘They just need to wear lots of layers.’ The proposal drew widespread support from Americans, a majority asserting that they had already considered implementing such a plan since January of this year. But it sparked a strong pushback from Canadians, who called on Prime Minister Carney to build a wall.”